Sony Analysis

Updates:

Some comments from TakeTwo (GTA parent company) on 6.2.2025 in an earnings call.

With regard to the upcoming release of GTA VI, obviously, this is a console release, and we know what the current console installed base looks like.

This is regarding the fact that about half or a little over half of active Playstation users are still using PS4. That means there are 50 million PS4 users, and if they want to play the upcoming release, they will need to upgrade.

GTA VI was also yet again confirmed for fall 2025 release. TakeTwo shares rose +6,3% after the earnings call even with numbers being on the low side of expectations. Sony shares did not move in the after market or the Japanese market in the morning. It seems like it is still not acknowledged by investors what the release means for Sony.

Position is up 33% but it feels like it is only up because of the more favorable developments in the Nikkei. I’m also holding Jan 16 ‘26 $20 Calls since the start of this year. While the developments in the past few months have been positive, the absent Sony price action from TakeTwo earnings call offers an opportunity to add to the position throughout the year.

From IGN on 10.2.2025. CEO of Take-Two:
In any case, according to Zelnick, the release of GTA 6, which is expected to be the biggest entertainment launch of all time, will drive console sales as fans jump into the current generation for the first time in order to play the game.

When you have a big title in the market and we have many of them coming, historically that has sold consoles.

And I think that will happen this year. I don't think tariffs are going to be our friend, but I think there will be a meaningful uptick in console sales in calendar 25 because of the release schedule, not just coming from us, but coming from others.

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From Dexerto 16.2.2025

As spotted by RockstarIntel, Corsair Gaming’s VP of Finance and IR, Ronald van Veen, mentioned GTA 6 in the company’s Q4 2024 earnings call (via Seeking Alpha).

The executive reminded investors of Take-Two’s plan to launch the game on consoles in fall 2025, then stated that, based on his understanding, the PC version is slated for an early 2026 rollout.

“… GTA 6 is probably the one everyone is talking about. And we’ll get a glimpse of that, I think, later on in the year for console. My understanding now [is that] it’s going to come out in the fall for console, and then early ’26 for PC,” he said during the call.

These comments are not great to hear. However looking at Take-Twos past releases, it seems unlikely to be before Q3 of next year. GTA V had delay of 19-months with the PC release, RDR2 13-months.

Take-Two wants to maximize the console sales before releasing it on PC. Doing a delayed release allows Take-Two to double-dip by selling the game again to user. There is simply not enough reason to release the game that soon and I would be surprised if there isn’t at least a 12-month delay. With the insane amount of development this game requires, there is zero chance that the developers can optimize the game that fast for PCs. I could see the PC release +12-months later in time for 2026 holidays.

Either way, as Sony has finally had favorable price action and the demand expectations are slowly getting realized, even if the early 2026 PC release came true, Sony will be fine. The release of 2026 Fiscal results remains my target. If PC release is more closer to the end of the 2026 or 2027, I could remain in the position.